"Forecasts of AI and future jobs in 2030: Muddling through likely, with two alternative scenarios"

by Halal, William; Kolber, Jonathan; Davies, Owen; Global, T (2017)

Abstract

After decades of failed promises, artificial intelligence (AI) is now taking off. Yesterday’s doubters have been silenced, and the only current debate is about how deep and how fast intelligent machines will automate jobs, and whether the same technological forces will generate enough new work.Several forecasts suggest AI is likely to eliminate almost half of present jobs by 2025, resulting in massive unemployment (Rutkin, 2013). [...] This study addresses the looming issue of unemployment by forecasting the future distribution of jobs in categories across the occupational spectrum. We first summarize background data from the literature and present two alternative perspectives for consideration. Then results of a TechCast survey of experts concludes that a “Muddling Through” period of turmoil but relatively few net job losses is most likely. We also present two alternative scenarios.

Key Passage

The problem is that we have a hard time knowing what lies ahead in this new frontier. Who would have thought a few decades ago that most people today would do their work by staring into PC monitors, laptops, and mobile devices? There is no fixed amount of human endeavor, and work of different kinds will always appear to fill new economic demands. (p.87)

Keywords

Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Unemployment, The Future Of Work, Worker Replacement, Automation, Technology

Themes

Future of Work, Unemployment, AI and Computerisation, Automation

Links to Reference

• https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/JFS212Final%EF%BC%88%E5%B7%B2%E6%8B%96%E7%A7%BB%EF%BC%89-6.pdf

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